Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives
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Schneider, Kevin; Van der Werf, Wopke; Cendoya, Martina; Mourits, Monique; Navas-Cortés, Juan A.; Vicent, Antonio; Oude Lansink, AlfonsDate
2020Cita bibliográfica
Schneider, K., Van der Werf, W., Cendoya, M., Mourits, M., Navas-Cortés, J. A., Vicent, A., & Lansink, A. O. (2020). Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(17), 9250-9259.Abstract
Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause
massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium
was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy),
causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future
spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and
radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model
is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone
profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for
Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around
95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability
modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold,
95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the
national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy,
Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered
rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact
over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the
economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after
orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible,
the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending
on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and
1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease
spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis
stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar
resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures,
including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing
host plants.